Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist, told delegates at the annual media briefing in Geneva on December 9 that global GDP growth remained around 3 percent in 2025, matching the long-term average and providing stability for the economy.
She explained front-loading of trade in 2025 offset anticipated tariff impacts, with Chinese exporters redirecting shipments to new markets and air cargo enabling rapid adjustments that boosted GDP beyond expectations.
Owens Thomsen noted air cargo growth stayed positive despite near-zero trade expansion, contrasting historical patterns where low trade dragged cargo volumes down, and credited the sector for underpinning economic results.
She highlighted capacity constraints in cargo fleets from low deliveries and extended use of older aircraft, alongside record passenger load factors reaching 83.8 percent in 2026 forecasts.
Owens Thomsen projected industry net profits at €37.7bn in 2026 with a 3.9 percent margin, regional variations showing Europe surpassing North America in total profits while Middle East led per-passenger earnings.
Marie Owens Thomsen shared “3pc is also the long-term average GDP growth. So it’s uh it’s sort of lukewarm, you know, not great, not bad and uh and and in actual fact quite a good thing for the global economy. This is a very unique phenomenon that happened in 2025 and it wouldn’t have happened without air cargo because the ships would have been too slow to get the goods in to the right harbor in time ahead of these um uh protectionist measures biting. The planes are flying exceptionally full and this is a a world record that we are predicting for 2026 at 83.8pc.”
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