- John Strickland warned airlines could remove more frequencies this winter.
- IATA forecasts fuel costs will rise by 40pc to $350bn in 2026.
- Fuel will account for 31.4pc of total operating expenses.
- Airlines are using hedging strategies to shield themselves from price increases.
- Strickland will speak at World Aviation Festival in Lisbon from 13-15 October.
Aviation analyst John Strickland has warned that European and US airlines could remove more frequencies in the winter and ground more aircraft than usual as high fuel costs make weaker services uneconomic. Strickland made the prediction during a World Aviation Festival webinar on 16 July, stating that no matter how much airlines reduced prices to stimulate demand, they still wouldn’t be covering the cost of the higher price of fuel.
Airlines normally operate fewer flights during the winter, but Strickland believes high fuel costs will make it more difficult for carriers to justify operating marginal services this year. He stated that markets and cabin classes have already seen greater price increases than others, with airlines’ exposure varying according to their hedging strategies. IATA forecasts fuel costs will rise by nearly 40pc to $350bn in 2026, with fuel accounting for 31.4pc of total operating expenses.
Strickland stated the number of services removed from schedules has so far been relatively modest, but expects decisions to become more difficult as the industry moves beyond the peak summer period. John Strickland will speak at World Aviation Festival from 13-15 October 2026 in Lisbon.
John Strickland, JLS Consulting, shared, “No matter how much airlines reduced prices to stimulate demand, they still wouldn’t be covering the cost of the higher price of fuel.”
