The 32 million passenger cap at Dublin Airport, imposed in 2007 as a planning condition for Terminal 2, continues to stifle Ireland’s aviation growth, tourism, and economy, with no immediate resolution in sight. As the airport operator, daa, navigates a complex web of legal battles, planning applications, and government pledges, the latest developments underscore the urgency of lifting the outdated restriction. Here’s a look at the state of play and the timeline of events as of 22 June 2025.
Dublin Airport, Ireland’s primary gateway handling around 80% of the nation’s air traffic, breached its 32 million passenger cap in 2024, recording 33.3 million passengers through its terminals. Despite efforts to dampen demand—such as removing airline incentives and encouraging carriers to shift operations to Cork Airport—the cap has proven increasingly untenable amidst soaring post-pandemic travel demand. The restriction, originally introduced to mitigate road congestion concerns that no longer exist, has led to stagnant passenger numbers in 2025, with a reported 25% drop in tourist arrivals in January alone. Airlines like Ryanair and Aer Lingus have scaled back routes, and new carriers have been turned away, costing the economy an estimated €500 million to €700 million annually.
The Irish High Court’s April 2025 ruling to suspend the cap’s enforcement pending a legal challenge has provided temporary relief. The Irish Aviation Authority (IAA), which allocates take-off and landing slots, can no longer restrict airlines to a 25.2 million seat cap for summer 2025 or apply similar limits for winter 2025/26 until the European Court of Justice (ECJ) clarifies the matter. This has spurred optimism for increased flights, with Ryanair announcing a record summer schedule and Aer Lingus maintaining its Dublin capacity. However, the planning condition remains in place, leaving daa vulnerable to enforcement actions.
On 20 June 2025, Fingal County Council issued a planning enforcement notice to daa for breaching the cap in 2024, intensifying pressure on the airport operator to comply with existing regulations while awaiting planning approvals to raise the limit. The notice has sparked concerns about potential fines or operational curbs, though daa insists it is doing all it can to navigate the impasse.
The government, led by Taoiseach Micheál Martin, promised to resolve the issue, with Transport Minister Darragh O’Brien exploring legislative options to bypass local planning laws. Attorney General Rossa Fanning’s advice includes the possibility of emergency legislation akin to 2022 energy laws, though such a move risks legal challenges from local residents concerned about noise and environmental impacts. The looming threat of an EU-US trade war, with US airlines alleging the cap violates the EU-US Open Skies Agreement, adds further urgency.
- 2007: An Bord Pleanála imposes a 32 million passenger cap as a condition for Terminal 2’s construction, citing road congestion fears.
- 2019: Dublin Airport nears the cap, handling 31.9 million passengers, but growth stalls due to the pandemic.
- December 2023: daa submits an Infrastructure Application (IA) to Fingal County Council to raise the cap to 40 million, alongside €2.4 billion in sustainable infrastructure investments.
- February 2024: Fingal requests further information on the IA, delaying progress.
- September 2024: daa forecasts a breach of the cap, with 33 million passengers expected for 2024. The IAA proposes a 25.2 million seat cap for summer 2025 to enforce compliance.
- October 2024: The IAA confirms the summer 2025 seat cap, prompting legal challenges from Ryanair, Aer Lingus, and Airlines for America.
- November 2024: The High Court grants a stay on the summer 2025 seat cap, pausing its enforcement pending ECJ review.
- December 2024: daa lodges a ‘no-build’ Operational Application (OA) to raise the cap to 36 million, but Fingal deems it invalid due to procedural issues.
- January 2025: Dublin Airport reports 33.3 million passengers for 2024, confirming the breach. Passenger numbers flatten in January due to the cap’s impact.
- February 2025: daa resubmits the OA, but progress remains slow. Ryanair calls for the cap’s immediate scrapping.
- April 2025: The High Court extends the suspension of the cap’s enforcement for winter 2025/26 slots. Fingal requests further information on the OA, while the IA remains under review.
- June 2025: Fingal issues an enforcement notice for the 2024 cap breach, heightening tensions.
The cap’s future hinges on multiple fronts. The ECJ’s ruling, expected in late 2025 or 2026, will determine whether the IAA’s slot restrictions align with EU law. Concurrently, Fingal’s decisions on the OA and IA are critical, though appeals to An Bord Pleanála could delay outcomes by three to five years. Legislative intervention remains a wildcard, with government sources signalling draft proposals may reach Minister O’Brien soon, but local opposition and environmental concerns could trigger further legal hurdles.
Kerry Jacobs shared; I don’t think Fingal needed to do this. They chose not to do it in previous years. The enforcement that they’ve served us is referring to us breaching the passenger cap in 2023. They’ve received a handful of complaints telling them they need to do their jobs in the planning authority and that job is very important. But the consequences of this are very serious. The Irish High Court has already decided this matter and the slots regulation is complex and they’ve sent it to the European Court of Justice. Fingall should have waited for that decision. They should wait for the government who have a policy of removing the cap at Dublin Airport and we understand legislation is coming in that and they should have worked with us on planning. There are other alternatives available to them to be proactive, be focused on the future, be focused on protecting jobs.
We’re publicly communicating our monthly passenger stats and we are going to be about 36.3 million passengers this year. The High Court has already decided that we don’t control the slots process. That’s what determines the passenger number. The IAA, who is the aviation regulator, controls the slot process. So there’s nothing we can do to control the number of passengers in order to comply with what Fingal wants us to comply with, which is an 18-year-old planning condition. So it’s pointless, but it’s very serious the action that they’re taking.
If they live in Narnia and they live in a bubble and they refuse to consider anything other than the rulebook that they have from a planning point of view, and if that’s what Ireland has been reduced to from a planning perspective, then that’s a very sad thing. We invite them every week to come up and actually look at the airport, which is functioning better than it ever has done before with over 36 million passengers. And they just need to wake up to the reality, come out of the bubble, and actually take an all Ireland perspective that this is beyond just the planning rulebook and work with us. This is really, really serious now, because if this goes ahead, seven million passengers have to come out, 30,000 jobs will be lost. That’s 30,000 real jobs today will go. How do those people who work and half of them work and vote in Fingal? How do they feel about this news? Because Fingal is taking this very serious but unnecessary action.
Kenny Jacobs shared” There are three ways out of this. One is get planning. The second thing is we all wait for the European Court of Justice to decide. The third thing is the government do what’s in the government policy, which is remove the cap at Dublin Airport. What DAA is going to do is do what we can control. We will continue to engage and work with Fingal on the two applications that we have sitting there for months, the 36 million application, and then the 40 million application, which is there for a year and a half. That’s what we all need to focus on, not going back over the past, focus on getting that 40 million application approved so that we can start building new parts of Dublin Airport that will allow us to expand. “
The Irish High Court has already decided that the passenger number at Dublin is controlled by the IAA because they control the slots process. That’s gone off to the European Court of Justice. So legally, on that argument, we’re very, very comfortable. We will continue to run a great airport. That’s what we’re doing. We will continue to receive calls. I had three US airlines call me yesterday asking me what the hell is going on in Dublin because they’re just really, really confused. This is the worst possible timing, the worst possible look for Irish aviation and Irish industry as we’re looking to grow in these times of tariffs, et cetera, et cetera. So this nonsense really needs to end, but we’ll focus on planning, which is the one thing we can control.
For now, the High Court’s suspension offers breathing room, enabling airlines to expand services for winter 2025/26. However, without a permanent solution, Ireland risks losing connectivity and economic opportunities to rival European hubs. As daa CEO Kenny Jacobs warned, “This is no longer just an airport issue; it’s an Ireland issue.
