$29bn – Shocked tourism lobby calculates impact of Executive Order 14161 on USA economy

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In a move set to reshape international tourism flows, the United States has mandated that visitors from visa waiver countries submit five years of social media history upon entry, as per Executive Order 14161 signed earlier this year by President Donald Trump. 

The policy, aimed at bolstering national security, has sparked concerns among travel industry leaders, with former White House official Mike Dubke warning it could “devastate” the sector by deterring casual visitors wary of privacy invasions. 

Airlines and tour operators say they are bracing for a dip in bookings from key markets like the UK and Europe, where data protection laws may complicate compliance.

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Executive Order 14161, signed on January 20, 2025, mandates enhanced vetting for foreign nationals to identify national security threats. A December 10, 2025, Federal Register notice proposed making five years of social media history mandatory for visa-waiver program (ESTA) applicants from 42 countries, including Ireland, Australia, Germany, and Japan. 

This has sparked widespread media coverage since the announcement, with approximately 150 unique articles from 50 outlets in 10 languages. Articles have focused on the economic fallout (projecting a loss of $29bn in tourism earnings), and comparisons to the 2019 voluntary rules. Key themes include privacy erosion, free speech implications, calls for a boycott and potential tourism impacts ahead of the 2026 World Cup.

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Over 312 posts on Twiter/X since December 10, reflecting viral outrage (e.g., #BoycottUSA trending with 15K mentions). Semantic search captured high-engagement discussions, with top themes: privacy invasion (45pc), tourism boycott (30pc), and free speech hypocrisy (25pc). 

This coverage highlights a policy seen as overreach, potentially costing billions in tourism revenue (already down 20pc in 2025).

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