- ADV lowered 2026 German passenger forecast to 217 million, down 1.4pc from 2025
- Year-to-date traffic remains 16pc below pre-pandemic 2019 levels
- German intra-European flight fees nearly double European average at €4,449
- Ryanair closing Berlin base, cutting 50pc of German capital capacity
- Lufthansa Cityline wind-down and Iran war further dampening demand
Germany’s airport association ADV has revised its 2026 passenger forecast downward for the second time in four months, now projecting 217 million passengers for the year. The new figure represents a 1.4pc decline compared to 2025 data and removes approximately five million passengers from the target set in April 2026. Total year-to-date traffic through July remains 16pc below 2019 levels, while commercial flight activity has fallen 22.1pc compared to the same pre-pandemic period.
The downgrade reflects persistent structural disadvantages facing German aviation despite the cabinet approving an air traffic tax cut that took effect in July 2026. The ADV has calculated that a standard intra-European flight from Germany incurs €4,449 in government taxes and fees, nearly double the broader European average of €2,326. For transatlantic routes, the government burden reaches €16,177 compared to the €6,914 continental benchmark.
Low-cost carriers have actively shifted capacity away from the German market, with Ryanair closing its seven-aircraft base at Berlin Brandenburg Airport, reducing its capacity in the capital by 50pc. Geopolitical tensions, including the recent war involving Iran, have further contracted regional demand, while the operational wind-down of Lufthansa’s regional carrier Cityline has removed thousands of scheduled flights from German runways.
ADV shared German aviation continues to lose competitiveness against European neighbours despite government tax cuts.
Lufthansa written statement shared the airline remains committed to its German home market but must adjust capacity to reflect current demand conditions.
