- Eurocontrol downgraded expected European flight growth for 2026 to 1.7pc
- The revision reduces projected traffic to 11.2m flights
- Middle East tensions and airspace disruptions drove the downgrade
- Bulgaria saw the sharpest forecast drop at 8.1 percentage points
- Growth is projected to accelerate to 3.2pc in 2027
Eurocontrol has downgraded expected European flight growth for 2026 from 2.7pc down to 1.7pc in its Autumn 2026 forecast. This 1 percentage point cut reduces total projected traffic across the European Civil Aviation Conference region to 11.2m flights representing a loss of roughly 110,000 flights compared to earlier expectations. The downward revision is primarily driven by ongoing geopolitical instability.
Escalating conflicts in the Middle East reduced passenger demand to and from the region with year-to-date traffic between Europe and the Middle East dropping 20pc below pre-crisis levels recorded in early 2026. Airlines have been forced to alter established flight routings across Europe and surrounding airspace to avoid conflict zones while geopolitical instability pushed jet fuel prices higher restraining airline capacity growth.
While southern and eastern European markets generally outperformed northwestern ones several major countries saw steep downward revisions compared to the Spring 2026 forecast. Bulgaria experienced the sharpest forecast drop at 8.1 percentage points followed by Türkiye at 5.9 percentage points and Germany at 2.4 percentage points. Under its baseline scenario assuming Middle East tensions ease by the first quarter of 2027 Eurocontrol expects flight growth to accelerate to 3.2pc in 2027 reaching 11.6m flights.
