Ryanair says summer profit down 15pc due to fuel price DESPITE 80pc hedging

• Ryanair Holdings reported H1 Profit After Tax of €2.15bn, down 15pc from €2.54bn in the prior year.
• Traffic rose 6pc to 125.8m passengers while average fares fell 4pc.
• Revenue rose 3pc to €10.08bn and operating costs rose 10pc to €7.69bn.
• The Group repaid a final €1.2bn bond in May and declared an interim dividend of €0.273 per share.
• FY27 traffic is expected to grow 3pc to 214m passengers, with 80pc of FY27 aircraft fuel hedged at about $67bbl.

Ryanair Holdings has reported H1 PAT of €2.15bn, a fall of 15pc from €2.54bn in the prior year, as unhedged aircraft fuel prices doubled and fares fell 4pc while traffic grew 6pc to 125.8m passengers. Revenue rose 3pc to €10.08bn in H1. Scheduled revenue rose 1pc to €7.0bn, ancillary revenue rose 6pc to €3.08bn, and operating costs rose 10pc to €7.69bn.

The Group repaid a final €1.2bn bond in May and declared an interim dividend of €0.273 per share payable in Feb. 2027. Ryanair has completed a €750m buyback programme and has retired over 40pc of issued share capital since 2008. The Board has also revealed a further €800m buyback starting in Feb. 2027.

FY27 traffic is expected to grow 3pc to 214m passengers. Ryanair has hedged 80pc of FY27 aircraft fuel at about $67bbl and 25pc of FY28 at about $95bbl. The company has cut its FY27 traffic target from 216m to 214m and plans to add 16 MAX-10 aircraft in spring 2027.

Michael O’Leary shared “H1 Revenue rose 3pc to €10.08bn. Scheduled revenue rose 1pc to €7.0bn as traffic grew 6pc but at 4pc lower fares.”

Full statement from Ryanair:

RYANAIR H1 PAT FALLS 15% TO €2.15BN AS UNHEDGED OIL DOUBLES & TRAFFIC GROWS 6% AT LOWER FARES.

Ryanair Holdings plc today (2 Nov.) reported H1 PAT of €2.15bn, a fall of 15% from PY H1 PAT of €2.54bn, as the price of unhedged jet-fuel doubled and fares (which include peak summer) fell 4%, while traffic grew 6% to 125.8m pax.

H1 highlights include:

• Traffic grew 6% to 125.8m.
• Rev. per pax fell 3% (ave. fare down 4% & ancil. rev. flat).
• Unit costs rose 5% as unhedged 20% jet-fuel prices doubled to c.$130bbl.
• 126 new routes & 1 new base (Rimini) on sale.
• FY27 jet-fuel 80% hedged at $67bbl. FY28 is 25% covered at $95bbl.
• Final €1.2bn bond repaid in May.
• €0.273 interim div. declared (payable in Feb. 2027).

Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary, said:

Revenue & Costs:

“H1 Revenue rose 3% to €10.08bn.  Scheduled revenue rose 1% to €7.0bn as traffic grew 6% but at 4% lower fares. H1 fares fell (April didn’t have a full Easter) as the Middle East conflict led to consumer hesitancy and later bookings. Ancillary revenue grew 6% to €3.08bn.  Operating costs rose 10% to €7.69bn as the price of our 20% unhedged jet-fuel doubled and supplier compensation ceased following delivery of our final B-8200 “Gamechanger” in Spring 2026.

Ryanair’s FY27 jet-fuel prices (80% hedged at c.$67bbl) has widened our cost advantage over other EU competitors and helped insulate current year earnings. While oil prices remain volatile, the Group has extended FY28 hedge cover on recent price dips to 25% at c.$95bbl. 

Balance Sheet, Liquidity & Returns:

Ryanair’s industry leading balance sheet and strong BBB+ credit ratings is supported by an unencumbered fleet of 620 B737 aircraft and strong liquidity.  At 30 Sept. gross cash was €2.6bn even after €1.3bn debt repayments, €0.8bn capex and €0.4bn shareholder distributions.  Liquidity is further boosted by the Group’s €1.1bn RCF which has c.€0.7bn undrawn. This financial strength widens the cost gap between Ryanair and our competitors, many of whom are heavily exposed to expensive (long-term) finance and aircraft lease costs.

In Sept. we completed our latest €750m buyback programme (cancelling c.28.6m shares). We have now retired over 40% of Ryanair’s issued share capital since 2008.  The Board remains committed to shareholder returns and today (in line with our policy) declared an interim dividend of €0.273 per share (payable in late Feb. 2027) and another €800m share buyback (starting in Feb., when cashflows are typically strongly positive ahead of summer travel). This latest buyback is expected to run for approx. 10-months (from late Feb.), subject to market conditions.

FLEET & GROWTH

We welcome the FAAs recent certification of the MAX-10, which we expect EASA will also certify before year end. This will enable Ryanair to take delivery of our first 16 MAX-10s in Spring 2027, in time for S.27. 

This winter (as we announced in Sept.) we have reduced the Group’s exposure to unhedged fuel by cutting our FY27 traffic target from 216m to 214m passengers. This schedule cut means winter traffic (Nov. to Mar.) will be broadly flat year-on-year. Next year, with 16 new MAX-10s in our S.27 fleet, we plan to grow traffic to over 220m passengers (+3%). We continue to allocate this scarce capacity to those States, Regions and Airports cutting aviation taxes and lowering fees to incentivise growth (such as Albania, Italy, Morocco, Slovakia and Sweden) while switching flights and traffic away from high tax/rising cost markets like Austria, Germany and Regional Spain. We have 126 additional routes and 1 new base (Rimini) on sale for S.27. 

We expect European short-haul capacity will remain constrained into the early 2030s as the big 2 OEMs remain well behind on their production targets, Pratt & Whitney delays continue, airline M&A accelerates and unprofitable airlines (hit by higher jet-fuel prices and strong US dollar) face a difficult winter, with some EU carriers already in Chapter 11.  These capacity constraints, combined with our widening cost advantage, strong balance sheet, low-cost (fuel-efficient) aircraft orderbook and industry leading ops resilience will, we believe, facilitate Ryanair’s sustainable, profitable growth to over 300m passengers p.a. by FY34. 

ESG

During H1 the Group operated 210 Gamechanger aircraft (4% more seats, 16% less fuel) and we expect to add the first 16 new Boeing MAX-10s into our fleet for S.27 (20% more seats & 20% less fuel). This winter we’ll complete the winglet retrofit programme on our B737NG fleet (1.5% lower fuel burn & 6% less noise).  Our continuing investment in new technology and operating resilience, coupled with ambitious SAF targets, makes Ryanair one of Europe’s most environmentally efficient airlines. Customer satisfaction (CSAT) scores improved to 90% this summer (PY: 89%) and the Ryanair Customer Panel recently met to provide valuable feedback on key customer touchpoints, incl. the future role of AI in travel. 

At 30 Sept., 30% of Ryanair’s issued share capital was held by EU nationals (in line with the level registered at 31 Mar. 2026).  EU nationals are entitled to exercise 100% of the voting rights in Ryanair Holdings plc, which ensures compliance with EU ownership and control requirement applicable to its EU airline subsidiaries.

OUTLOOK

FY27 traffic is expected to grow 3% to 214m while our unit cost leadership continues to widen. With 80% of jet-fuel hedged at c.$67bbl to Mar. 2027, this year’s earnings are well insulated from current oil price volatility, which also helped us to offset a further €300m EU enviro. tax increase, significant crew pay increases under new multi-year CLAs and higher maintenance.  Final FY27 unit costs (now spread over the lower 214m traffic target) will depend on the price of H2 unhedged jet-fuel.  While Q3 demand is strong, with fares trending modestly ahead of the same quarter last year, the booking window remains closer-in which reduces visibility. Q3s fare outcome will heavily depend on the strength of close-in Oct./Nov. school mid-term and Christmas bookings. As is normal at this time of year, we have zero Q4 visibility. It therefore remains too early to provide meaningful FY27 PAT guidance. 

The final FY27 PAT remains highly sensitive to adverse external developments, incl. conflict escalation in the Middle East and Ukraine, the price of our 20% unhedged jet-fuel, macro-economic shocks and the impact of European ATC disruptions (strikes & mismanagement).

Addressing FY28 Fuel Costs

Unless there is a swift resolution of the Middle East conflict, we expect jet-fuel prices to remain elevated well into 2027.  As low cost oil hedges roll off ahead of S.27, all EU airlines face a significantly higher fuel bill next year.  While we believe European short haul airfares will increase materially to reflect these much higher jet-fuel prices and competitor capacity reductions, this is still unlikely to provide a full offset for an estimated c.€2bn increase (based on current forward prices) in our FY28 fuel bill. To help address this, we’re reviewing all costs across Group airlines with a particular focus on airport churn negotiations (as the fuel efficient MAX-10s deliver from Spring 2027), maturing labour agreements (which may require temporary pay freezes), lower crewing ratios and increased use of AI to drive further operational and back-office/support functions productivity.”