As the United States gears up for a potentially banner year in tourism with events like the FIFA World Cup and the nation’s 250th anniversary celebrations, industry forecasts paint a mixed picture. International visitor numbers are projected to rebound modestly in 2026 after a dip this year, boosted by events such as the FIFA mens soccer world cup, but new visa restrictions and invasive social media screening requirements threaten to deter millions of potential visitors.
According to the U.S. Travel Association’s latest autumn forecast, inbound international visits are expected to decline 6.3pc to 67.9m in 2025 from 72.4m in 2024, with spending dropping 3.2pc to $173bn.
The downturn is largely attributed to fewer Canadian arrivals and stagnant growth from other markets, exacerbated by rising visa fees, prolonged application wait times, and negative perceptions in key source countries.
Overall, optimism prevails for 2026, with latest projections showing a 3.7pc increase to 70.4m international visitors, marking a resumption of growth that could accelerate to an average of 5pc annually thereafter, surpassing pre-pandemic highs with 81.9m arrivals by 2029.
Brand USA, the nation’s destination marketing organization, echoes this sentiment, estimating a 3-4pc rise in arrivals for 2026 following flat or slight growth in 2025. Domestic travel, meanwhile, remains a bright spot, with 2.4bn trips anticipated in 2025—a 2pc uptick—helping to offset international shortfalls as Americans increasingly explore their own backyard. States like California, New York, Florida, Washington, Texas, and Massachusetts are poised to lead the charge, boasting strong visitor numbers and market share that could propel a broader tourism boom.
Yet, these upbeat projections come with significant caveats, as recent policy shifts under the Trump administration introduce barriers that could erode confidence among foreign tourists. Effective January 1, 2026, Presidential Proclamation 10998 expands travel bans, suspending visa issuance to nationals from dozens of countries deemed high-risk due to deficiencies in screening, vetting, and information-sharing. Full suspensions apply to immigrants and nonimmigrants from nations including Afghanistan, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Syria, Yemen, and others like Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger—totaling 19 countries—barring entry except in limited cases such as for U.S. permanent residents or certain diplomatic visas. Partial restrictions affect another 20 countries, including Cuba, Nigeria, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe, limiting tourist, student, and business visas while potentially shortening validity periods.
The proclamation aims to protect national security by curbing threats from terrorism, corruption, and visa overstays, with provisions for case-by-case waivers and ongoing reviews every 180 days. Industry experts warn that these measures could further depress inbound travel, already at just 85pc of 2019 levels in 2025, by alienating key markets in Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America. “,” said a spokesperson for the U.S. Travel Association, noting potential losses inbns of tourism dollars.
Compounding the issue is a new requirement for visitors from 42 Visa Waiver Program (VWP) countries—primarily in Europe—to disclose five years of social media history, 10 years of email addresses, and detailed family information when applying for Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA). Set to take effect in February 2026, this policy expands on existing vetting mandates and has drawn sharp criticism for invading privacy and deterring spontaneous travel. The U.S. Travel Association has labeled it a potential “chilling effect” on visitation, arguing it could scare offms, especially ahead of the 2026 World Cup co-hosted with Canada and Mexico. Analysts fear reduced tourism spending in hotspots like Orlando’s theme parks and New York City, where international visitors contribute heavily to retail and hospitality sectors.
Despite these headwinds, some see silver linings in shifting visitor behaviors, such as a weaker dollar boosting purchasing power for inbound tourists and a surge in sustainable, experience-driven travel.
With the industry already reeling from post-pandemic recovery challenges, stakeholders are urging policymakers to mitigate impacts through streamlined processes and targeted marketing. The coming year will test whether America’s allure can overcome these new hurdles.
Geoff Freeeman of US Travel shared, “The U.S. remains a dream destination, but policies must balance security with accessibility to realize 2026’s full potential.This isn’t just about security—it’s a blow to our hospitality economy.”
