German airport passenger forecast revised downwards for 2026

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  • The ADV has lowered its 2026 passenger forecast to around 217m, a 1.4pc decline.
  • German airports handled 119.43m passengers between January and July, down 0.5pc year-over-year.
  • Intra-European flight fees in Germany average €4,449, nearly double the European average.
  • Ryanair has closed its Berlin base and cut half of its capacity in the capital.
  • The Iran conflict disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and caused jet fuel prices to spike.

The German Airports Association ADV has lowered its passenger forecast for 2026 to around 217m, a drop of 1.4pc compared with the previous year. The revision has reflected the impact of the Iran conflict, weak economic conditions and high airport charges in Germany. A modest rise in July traffic did not reverse the overall downward trend.

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German airports handled 119.43m passengers between January and July, down 0.5pc year-over-year and lagging 16pc behind pre-pandemic 2019 levels. Commercial flight movements dropped 3.8pc in the first seven months of the year and recovered to only about 77.9pc of 2019 benchmarks. Frankfurt Airport recorded its busiest month of the year in August with 6.3m passengers, while overall flight capacity remained constrained across the country.

German intra-European flight fees have climbed to nearly double the European average at €4,449, which the ADV has cited as a structural disadvantage. Airlines have reduced capacity, with Ryanair closing its Berlin base and cutting half of its capacity in the capital, alongside the wind-down of Lufthansa Cityline. The outbreak of war in Iran disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and caused jet fuel prices to spike, compromising flight profitability and leading airlines to scale back less lucrative routes.

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