- Cirium forecasts around 43,000 commercial aircraft deliveries between 2026 and 2045.
- The forecast is down 3,500 aircraft from the previous outlook.
- Total market value is estimated at $3.2 trillion (€2.73 trillion).
- The global passenger fleet is projected to grow 88pc to over 50,000 aircraft.
- Comac is projected to overtake Embraer around 2035.
Cirium has forecast around 43,000 commercial aircraft deliveries between 2026 and 2045 published in October 2026. The forecast lowers the previous long-term outlook by 3,500 aircraft a 7.5pc reduction from the 46,500 deliveries projected in 2025 due to persistent manufacturing constraints and supply chain bottlenecks. The total market value is estimated at $3.2 trillion (€2.73 trillion) in 2026 dollars.
The global passenger aircraft fleet is projected to grow 88pc expanding from roughly 30,000 to slightly over 50,000 aircraft by 2045. About 55pc of new deliveries will drive net fleet growth while the remaining 45pc will replace ageing aircraft currently in service. Airbus is expected to lead narrowbody deliveries while Boeing retains an edge in widebodies.
The global freighter fleet will grow by 64pc to around 3,900 aircraft fueled by e-commerce and time-sensitive logistics. Chinese manufacturer Comac is projected to overtake Brazil’s Embraer around 2035. The forecast reflects expectations for aviation growth driven by post-pandemic travel rebound and demand for fuel-efficient aircraft.
