- Mexican airlines now hold 40pc capacity share compared to 34pc in summer 2024.
- US airlines reduced capacity by 1m seats compared to summer 2025.
- American Airlines dropped nearly 170,000 seats to Mexico.
- Cancun lost over 570,000 seats; Mexico City grew 8.7pc.
- The Mexican Peso appreciated by 8pc in the last year.
OAG has reported a structural shift in US-Mexico aviation capacity, with Mexican-domiciled airlines now holding a 40pc capacity share compared to 34pc in summer 2024, representing a significant shift in production. Volaris has increased capacity to the United States by 25pc over the last two summer seasons, driven by the delivery of 31 new aircraft since 2023. US-based airlines have collectively reduced capacity by onem seats compared to summer 2025, with American Airlines dropping nearly 170,000 seats and Alaska Airlines cutting 240,000 seats.
Departing capacity has fallen from all major US markets, with Texas and California seeing capacity fall by approximately 300,000 seats each. Florida had the largest percentage decline at 15pc, losing 168,000 seats. Six states reported capacity growth, led by Oregon with a 36pc increase. Illinois was the only larger market to see year-on-year growth, with American Airlines adding 63,000 seats, United adding 23,000, and Volaris adding 63,000.
Cancun saw the largest absolute capacity loss of over 570,000 seats, while Puerto Vallarta experienced a near 30pc loss. Mexico City saw 8.7pc growth and Guadalajara added 137,000 seats. OAG Chief Analyst John Grant stated the recent changes appear to be more than a short-term change and could reflect deeper factors including market wear-out, the 8pc appreciation of the Mexican Peso, and wider geo-political issues.
John Grant, OAG Chief Analyst, shared, “The recent changes in the US – Mexico market appear to be more than just a short-term change and could be reflective of deeper factors.”
