SMBC Aviation Capital reports geopolitical tensions yet to derail demand

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  • SMBC Aviation Capital has published its Q4 2026 Plane Insights report
  • The report highlights resilience in aviation despite geopolitical tensions
  • Lessors financed 58pc of all new aircraft deliveries in the first three quarters of 2026
  • Fuel costs remain a challenge with crack spreads above pre-pandemic levels
  • European airline consolidation is increasing

SMBC Aviation Capital has published its Q4 2026 Plane Insights report highlighting how global aviation continues to demonstrate resilience despite a challenging economic and geopolitical backdrop. Rising oil prices, higher interest rates and ongoing conflict in the Middle East have increased pressure on airlines yet passenger demand and aircraft utilisation remain strong.

Lessors financed 58pc of all new aircraft deliveries during the first three quarters of 2026. Direct placements from lessor orderbooks accounted for 28pc of deliveries, the highest level since the pandemic era. Airlines are increasingly relying on lessors to secure scarce new aircraft production slots.

Fuel costs remain one of the industry’s biggest challenges with crack spreads having averaged more than double pre-pandemic levels since 2022. These elevated fuel costs strengthen the business case for newer-generation aircraft. The number of city-pair connections worldwide reached a record level during summer 2026. European airline groups have increased concentration faster than their American counterparts since 2000.

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