South American tailwinds boost bidding for TAP Portugal

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Favourable economic trends in South America are intensifying competition for a 44.9pc stake in Portugal’s flag carrier TAP, with IAG, Air France-KLM, and Lufthansa expressing interest amid a shift towards South Atlantic routes. 

Analysts highlighted South America’s projected 2.7pc GDP growth in 2025 and 4.3pc annual air traffic rise through 2044, boosting demand and diminishing North Atlantic dominance for European carriers. TAP’s attractions include its young fleet, strong Lisbon-Brazil links, and 9pc 2024 operating margin. 

Portugal aims to recover €3,200m invested since 2020, with a potential €700m sale implying a €3,800m enterprise value (over 4x EBITDA). IAG holds an edge due to lower leverage. Immigration from Argentina, Venezuela, and Colombia to Spain further drives transatlantic travel, reshaping airline strategies in a consolidating market.

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