Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary thinks Aer Lingus should fly through the strike as they do not cause as much disruption anymore.
I think the strike is going to go ahead. I don’t believe it will get settled. I don’t think they can afford to settle this one. However, I don’t anticipate it causing significant disruption. The main concern is potential repercussions in British Airways and Iberia. If they concede to a 24pc pay increase here, they may face challenges in the other group airlines. I suspect there will be a couple of days of strikes.
These individuals are not keen on protesting; they see themselves differently. We’ve experienced strikes ourselves before, so it’s not as disruptive anymore, despite the media hype suggesting chaos.
Additional British Airways flights will probably be added from Heathrow. Iberia flights from Madrid and Barcelona may also be affected. There may be disruptions to transatlantic flights, but in the short term, it may prevent conceding to the pilots’ demands for a 24% pay increase.
As for the long term strategy for Aer Lingus, they may start reallocating resources, possibly pulling deliveries of the A321 aircraft. Ultimately, in the short term, there may be a shift in aircraft allocation, but in the next year or two, there is a desire to grow the transatlantic fleet. Some aircraft allocations have been redirected to Iberia, as per previous moves by IAG.
I think they will allow a couple of days of strikes to show the pilots they are willing to do so. Once pilots go on strike, the issue often gets resolved quickly. There seems to be a new player, Philip Mark Ta, who wants to establish himself as tough like Evan Cullen and secure an early win in his leadership. It is believed that he got the job because he thought Evan Cullen was not tough enough for Aer Lingus and didn’t initiate enough strikes. It is uncertain if Aer Lingus will face more strikes, as IAG may not be as concerned about the airline now that Willie Walsh is no longer in charge.
Mark Tighe appears to be positioning himself as a tougher Evan Cullen, driving the agenda more than anything else. The challenge arises once there have been several days of strikes, and the outcome remains uncertain.
If Heathrow operations can be maintained with British Airways aircraft during strikes, they will accommodate high-yielding passengers on alternate days. Pilots generally do not like exercise.
Aer Lingus would likely be more vulnerable to Irish pilot strikes than we are, but Aer Lingus Regional and the operation based in Manchester would continue to run. The Manchester-based aircraft are not expected to be involved in any strikes. It’s worth considering if British Airways and Iberia utilise other group airlines for backup during strikes.
When we had our strike in Belgium, flights were able to operate at around 50pc capacity when using aircraft based outside the country where the strike occurred. Aer Lingus may not have as much flexibility as other airlines in this regard, but they do have some with aircraft based in Manchester.
I don’t know how the trans Atlantics are staffed, but if they have US-based pilots and crew for those flights, it could be a problem if there are no spare aircraft or crew this summer. Michael mentioned that they have six spare aircraft kept for technical issues and disruptions, while British Airways may have more spare aircraft due to their larger fleet. The main concern for Aer Lingus is keeping the connecting traffic flowing, especially for transatlantic flights. Links within Europe are manageable, and they expect British Airways to re-accommodate passengers the day before or after if needed. The focus for Aer Lingus is on maintaining the flow of connecting traffic.
