A missile first by air defense systems is emerging as the likeliest cause of Azerbaijan Flight 8243 air disaster. An Embraer 190, registration 4K-AZ65, flight number J2-8243, crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan while traveling from Azerbaijan to Russia, with 67 passengers and crew on board. It was initially reported that 32 of the passengers survived the crash.
The aircraft was forced to make an emergency landing due to fog near the destination of Grozny, Chechnya. Russian news agencies said that the plane had been flying from Baku to Grozny in Russia’s Chechnya, but had been rerouted due to fog in Grozny. The aircraft squawked 7700 on its transponder which signaled an emergency had occurred on board, while flying over the Caspian Sea.
According to Azerbaijan Airlines, 37 of the passengers were Azerbaijani citizens, 16 Russians, six Kazakhs, and three Kyrgyz nationals.
Videos captured on social media by AnewZ appeared to show the aircraft struggling to land and subsequently breaking apart, igniting into a fireball upon hitting the ground.
At approximately 07:25 local time (04:25 UTC), ongoing UAV attacks were reported in Grozny, two hours before when tthe crew of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 sent out a distress signal by squawking 7700 on their transponder at 09:35 local time (06:35 UTC).
Flight tracking service Flightradar24 indicated that the plane experienced GPS jamming, with invalid ADS-B position data starting at 04:25 UTC due to significant interference. This could have been intentional GPS jamming by local authorities aimed at disrupting drone navigation, a tactic previously observed in Moscow.
The aircraft sustained damage, showing shrapnel marks on the vertical stabilizer and wings, indicating a nearby explosion.
Reports from witnesses described injuries, including one woman wounded in the leg and another individual whose life jacket was pierced by shrapnel.
It is believed that Chechen anti-aircraft systems, possibly the Pantsir-S1, misidentified the plane as a UAV due to a malfunction in the “friend-or-foe” identification system.
The explosion patterns from the Pantsir-S1 align with the shrapnel observed on the aircraft. Sources involved in the investigation reported that as the plane approached Grozny, surviving passengers heard an explosion followed by shrapnel striking and penetrating the aircraft.
Reports from AnewZ, an Azerbaijan-based news channel, referenced a Russian military blogger suggesting that the aircraft’s damage indicated it may have been accidentally struck by an air-defense missile system (SAM).
Grozny is heavily fortified, as Kadyrov’s Chechen fighters are crucial to the Kremlin and are considered a high-value target for Ukrainians, which may explain the extreme response from Russian air defense against aerial activity above the city while the Azerbaijan Airlines aircraft was preparing to land.
Kazakh authorities are investigating other potential causes, including technical issues and weather conditions. The ministry initially said 25 people survived the crash, later revising that number to 27, 28 and 29 as the search and rescue operation continue.
Initial reports suggested that the emergency landing was due to colliding with a flock of birdsVideo captured of the events showed the aircraft struggling to maintain altitude and control, with radar data suggesting the aircraft had aborted an initial two attempts to land, before it banked at a low angle towards the runway on its third attempt, and lost its remaining altitude and nose-dived into the ground
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev returned from a summit in Russia amidst the unfolding events.
The Embraer E190AR registered as 4K-AZ65 with serial number 19000630, was manufactured in 2013, and was powered by two General Electric CF34-10E6 engines.
It was delivered to the airline on 22 July 2013. The aircraft then became part of Buta Airways’ fleet, which was a low-cost virtual airline subsidiary of the former, being delivered on 21 October 2017. The aircraft was delivered back to Azerbaijan Airlines on 9 October 2023, and was stored at Baku International Airport on 25 December 2023 until its return to service on 19 October 2024, just 2 months prior to its crash.
The crash was captured on video, which showed that the landing gear was deployed when the plane impacted the ground. The aircraft crashed into the ground at a steep angle, with its right wing hitting the ground first. It then tumbled, exploded, and broke into two major pieces, and fire soon erupted. The tail section of the plane came to rest upside down away from the main wreckage, and was free from fire damage.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated at a news conference that it was premature to speculate on the cause of the crash but indicated that weather conditions had forced the plane to deviate from its intended route.
He shared: “The information provided to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and headed to Aktau airport, where it crashed upon landing,.
