As Cuba’s tourism sector is currently facing a severe collapse as of February 2026, driven by an unprecedented energy and fuel crisis, the Cuban government continues to project growth for 2025 and 2026. Actual visitor numbers have plummeted to 20-year lows.
Current Status of Tourism Recovery
Arrivals Deficit: In 2024, Cuba received only 2.2m international visitors, failing to meet its 3.2m target and remaining at less than half of pre-pandemic (2018) levels.
2025/2026 Projections vs. Reality: Although the government set a target of 2.6m arrivals for 2025, early data from 2026 indicates a sharp downward trend due to flight cancellations.
Market Share Loss: Unlike the rest of the Caribbean, which has seen tourism surpass 2019 levels, Cuba’s recovery has stalled, with competitors like the Dominican Republic siphoning off its core Canadian market.
Key Barriers to Stability
Fuel and Energy Crisis: Severe gasoline and jet fuel shortages have led to the suspension of flights by major carriers like Air Canada and Russian airlines.
Resort Consolidations: The government has begun shutting down some resorts and consolidating guests into fewer operational hotels to save on generator fuel and food supplies.
Infrastructure Failures: Prolonged national blackouts and shortages of basic staples (e.g., eggs, flour, sugar) at hotels have damaged the destination’s reputation.
Geopolitical Pressure: The re-imposition of strict U.S. sanctions and fuel blockades has significantly choked the island’s liquidity.
Government Response & Strategies
New Market Focus: Cuba is attempting to pivot toward the Chinese market, offering visa-free travel and new Air China flights.
Renewable Energy: Plans are underway to power 80pc of resorts via solar energy to bypass the failing national grid.
Continued Investment: Despite low occupancy (roughly 30pc in 4- and 5-star hotels), the state continues to invest heavily in hotel construction rather than repairing existing infrastructure.
