IATA passenger demand January 2026, global RPK growth, air travel load factor record, Total demand measured in revenue passenger kilometers rose 3.8pc compared to January 2025.
Capacity in available seat kilometers increased 3.5pc year-on-year, with load factor at 82.0pc, a record high for January. International demand grew 5.9pc, with capacity up 5.8pc and load factor at 82.5pc.
Domestic demand increased only 0.1pc, affected by the Lunar New Year shift to February 2026. Fundamentals supported continued strong growth in 2026 despite uncertainty from recent events.
Willie Walsh shared “The timing of the Lunar New Year partly explains the slightly slower 3.8pc expansion in January, but the fundamentals are in place for demand to continue strong growth in 2026. Schedule data, for example, indicate a 5.2pc increase in global seat capacity by March, which would be the fastest expansion since April 2024. Events over the weekend have, however, introduced some uncertainty into the evolution of traffic and fuel costs. We all hope for an early peaceful resolution to the current hostilities. In the meantime, it is critical that states respect their obligation to keep civilians, and civil aviation free from harm.”
“Average fares are expected to fall in real terms over the course of 2026, continuing a long-established trend of ever more affordable air travel. This is despite persistent cost pressures from rising infrastructure charges, onerous regulatory burdens, and the mounting cost of the energy transition. In the face of these cost and regulatory pressures, it is notable that 2025 saw the slowest rate of new airline start-ups since 1999. Governments who value competition should consider this a canary in the coal mine. To protect and enhance the consumer benefits of connectivity, these cost and regulatory issues must be addressed.”
