Uncertainty in tariffs means uncertainty in aviation and travel. Having survived the first round of Trump tariff tantrum ratified last year, Airbus and Boeing are going to find life difficult in the months ahead as hard won exemptions come under threat once more.
The implications are vast for Irish customers like Ryanair, AerCap and Avolon, and Airbus customers in the USA. Trump’s latest move, to impose universal 10pc and 15pc tariffs which some say are already in breach of the Supreme Court judgement, has caused new ripples of worry through Ireland’s aviation sector.
In the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision on 20 February 2026, which struck down Trump’s previous sweeping tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the president wasted no time in responding.
The 6-3 ruling declared that such broad use of emergency powers exceeded executive authority, a move that sent shockwaves across global markets.
Within hours, Trump revealed a new 10pc tariff on imports from all countries, invoking Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.
This provision allows for temporary duties up to 15pc for a maximum of 150 days without congressional approval, ostensibly to address balance-of-payments issues. Critics argue this stretches the law’s intent, designed for genuine economic crises rather than protectionist agendas.
For Ireland, home to a thriving aviation leasing industry valued at over €100bn, this pivot reintroduces instability that had briefly eased after last year’s EU-US trade deal.
The aviation exemptions, carved out in prior agreements, now hang by a thread. While the White House confirmed that civil aircraft, engines, and components remain exempt from the new tariffs, the broader economic fallout poses indirect risks. Supply chains in aviation span continents, with parts sourced from multiple nations.
A 15pc hike on non-exempt materials, such as certain metals or electronics, could inflate production costs for both Boeing and Airbus. Ryanair, Europe’s largest low-cost carrier, relies heavily on Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, with orders worth €30bn at stake. If retaliatory measures from the EU emerge, as Brussels has hinted, Boeing exports to Europe might face reciprocal duties, pushing up prices for Irish operators. AerCap and Avolon, two of the world’s top aircraft lessors based in Dublin, manage fleets leased to airlines globally. Higher costs could squeeze margins, forcing lease rate increases that ripple through to passengers in the form of pricier tickets.
This tariff escalation revives memories of the 2018-2021 Boeing-Airbus dispute, where duties averaged €1.6 million per imported aircraft. Although suspended in 2021, the underlying tensions persist. Trump’s decision to raise the global tariff to 15pc on 21 February 2026, effective immediately, amplifies these concerns. He justified the move on Truth Social, claiming it countered decades of unfair trade practices.
However, economists warn that such policies often backfire, inflating consumer prices and stifling growth. In Ireland, where aviation contributes €4.1bn annually to GDP and supports 42,000 jobs, the sector’s vulnerability is acute. Leasing firms like AerCap, with a portfolio exceeding 1,300 aircraft, and Avolon, managing assets worth €25bn, face potential disruptions in cross-border deals. US airlines, major customers for Airbus models assembled in Mobile, Alabama, might defer purchases if costs rise, indirectly hitting Irish lessors.
Beyond direct exemptions, the uncertainty breeds hesitation in investment. Ryanair’s chief executive, Michael O’Leary, has previously confirmed that tariff-induced price hikes could lead to order cancellations or delays. With deliveries scheduled through 2034, any postponement affects capacity planning, especially as post-pandemic travel demand surges. Boeing, already grappling with production delays, risks losing ground to Airbus if European buyers pivot. Meanwhile, Airbus customers in the USA, such as Delta and American Airlines, benefit from domestic assembly but still contend with tariff-exposed components. The Supreme Court judgement, while limiting executive overreach, has paradoxically invited this new layer of tariffs, which some legal experts view as a circumvention. If challenged again, prolonged litigation could extend the limbo, deterring long-term contracts in an industry where deals span decades.
The broader geopolitical context adds fuel to the fire. EU leaders have revealed plans for consultations on potential retaliatory tariffs, targeting US exports like aircraft and automobiles. This tit-for-tat could escalate into a full-blown trade war, reminiscent of the steel and aluminium disputes that cost global economies €200bn in lost trade. For Ireland, caught between its strong US ties and EU membership, the position is precarious. The government in Dublin has lobbied for aviation protections, recognising the sector’s role in attracting foreign investment. Trump’s approach prioritises American manufacturing, potentially at the expense of allies. As exemptions teeter, companies must adapt, perhaps by diversifying suppliers or hedging against currency fluctuations tied to the euro and dollar.
In essence, these tariffs encapsulate a policy of economic nationalism that overlooks interconnected industries like aviation. While the Supreme Court aimed to restore checks and balances, Trump’s swift countermeasures have reinstated doubt. For Ryanair, AerCap, and Avolon, the path forward involves navigating this volatility, balancing growth ambitions with risk mitigation. Passengers, too, may bear the brunt through higher fares, underscoring how political decisions in Washington reverberate across the Atlantic. As spring approaches, the aviation sector holds its breath, hoping for de-escalation before exemptions erode further. The lesson is clear: in global trade, no exemption is eternal, and uncertainty remains the only constant.
