‘Excessive reaction’ – Gus Kelly warns Growth Frontiers aviation conference about overstating global uncertainty

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  • AerCap CEO advised caution against overreacting to geopolitical uncertainties.
  • Gold prices exceeded €4,600 per ounce, linked to currency movements and risks.
  • No signs of weakened interest in dollar-based aviation assets.
  • Aviation financing relies on long-term cycles with 25-year assets and 12-year leases.
  • Airline Economics event in Dublin drew over 5,000 delegates as a global barometer.

The chief executive officer of AerCap, the world’s largest aircraft leasing company, has told the Growth Frontier Conference in Dublin that excessive reactions to recent geopolitical and economic uncertainties, emphasising the aviation financing industry’s focus on secure long-term cycles.

Speaking at the Airline Economics event in Dublin, CEO Aengus Kelly noted that rising gold prices, which surpassed €4,600 per ounce for the first time, reflect currency fluctuations as much as broader risks. He observed no indications of reduced interest in dollar-based assets despite market tensions. The event, attended by over 5,000 delegates, serves as an indicator of global economic risks and trade flows. Kelly stressed the importance of maintaining a steady approach in a sector dealing with 25-year assets and 12-year leases.

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Kelly dismissed concerns about daily media or political developments impacting the industry, reiterating that long-term perspectives must prevail. He acknowledged existing risks but underlined the necessity of viewing the business through a prolonged lens. The Dublin gathering followed the Davos summit, which exposed political and economic strains affecting currency values. Kelly attributed part of the gold price surge to depreciating major currencies over years, while viewing it as a risk hedge. Other indicators, such as US Treasury yields, remain reasonably low, supporting his outlook.

In response to questions about investor appetite for dollar-denominated aircraft investments, Kelly confirmed no evidence of decline, stating that no viable alternatives exist

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Aengus Kelly shared “You have to stay to True North. This is a very long-term business, with long-cycle 25-year assets, leases that are 12 years. You just can’t react to what’s happening on a day-to-day basis in the media or in the political spectrum. I’m not saying there aren’t risks out there, but you do have to remember you’re looking at a very long-term business.”

“Some would say about the price of gold that we’ve had a depreciating major currency for many years, but I know that gold is often seen as a hedge for risk too. We see absolutely no sign of that. There’s no alternative.”

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