- Experts covered geopolitics, global security, trade and economics.
- Marie Owens Thomsen SVP Sustainability and Chief Economist at IATA participated.
- The discussion addressed forces over the next 12 months.
- The session formed part of the 82nd IATA Annual General Meeting.
A panel discussion examined the forces shaping the airline operating environment during The Big Picture session at the IATA AGM in Rio de Janeiro. Marie Owens Thomsen SVP Sustainability and Chief Economist at IATA contributed insights on economic trends and sustainability factors. The discussion focused on geopolitics global security trade and economics over the coming 12 months.
Participants reviewed current pressures that include supply chain disruptions and regional tensions. The session formed part of the 82nd IATA Annual General Meeting in Rio de Janeiro. Industry leaders considered implications for airline planning and investment decisions.
Speakers outlined scenarios for trade flows and security developments. The panel emphasised data driven analysis of macroeconomic indicators. Attendees received updates on how these elements affect route networks and operational costs.
Luis Gallego, CEO IAG and Chair, IATA Board of Directors 2025-2026 shared “higher prices mean our fuel cost has gone from 25pc of total expenditure to about 30pc. But we know we will always have these challenges, and airlines have learned to be resilient.”
Marie Owens Thomsen shared “Our analysis shows that airlines must prepare for continued volatility in geopolitical and economic conditions over the coming year. It is estimated that a $10 increase in the price on crude oil leads to a 0.1pc decrease in world GDP. We can use this rule of thumb to predict that world GDP will grow about 2.5pc this year”
Eleanor Budds of S&P Global shared: The oil supply problem started with flow disruption with tankers stuck in the Strait of Hormuz. Then refineries reduce production as their product is not being shipped leading to a supply disruption. Now we are moving into demand disruption as prices climb.”
