The Irish Aviation Authority (IAA) plans to limit airline seat capacity at Dublin Airport to 25.2m for summer 2025, a reduction of approximately 1m seats compared to the previous year, to comply with a 32m passenger cap.
This decision is expected to frustrate airlines, such as Ryanair and Aer Lingus, that are looking to expand their capacity at the airport, leading to concerns about fewer routes and potentially higher prices for travelers.
The IAA’s set capacity follows its earlier decision to limit winter seat capacity to 14.4m, yielding a total of 39.6m seats across both seasons, still exceeding the 32m annual cap due to unequally filled flights.
Dublin Airport and daa are pushing the government to lift the passenger cap, but legal constraints prevent such action, while an application for an increase to 40m passengers has been submitted to Fingal County Council, with a decision expected to take years.
The formal decision is likely to trigger High Court challenges from airlines including Ryanair and Aer Lingus, the lobby group Airlines for America, and the Dublin Airport Authority (DAA).
The seat cap decision, while detrimental to Irish jobs, the economy, and connectivity, is seen as necessary for Dublin Airport to comply with planning regulations in 2025.
Daa emphasizes its inability to prevent flights or control airline slot usage, highlighting that the IAA holds the authority regarding EU Airport Slot Regulation.
Daa CEO Kenny Jacobs warns that the loss of a million seats next summer could lead to approximately €500m in economic damage, stressing that this issue extends beyond the airport to impact all of Ireland.
A written statement shared: “The role of the IAA does not encompass any powers to amend or revoke planning conditions or make any decision to enforce or not enforce conditions. These are all matters to be determined by the planning authorities, such as Fingal County Council. Were the planning condition not in place it would be declaring a significantly higher capacity for next summer. Accordingly, this would facilitate all Summer 2024 slot series, and anticipated growth and new entrants in the Season, including ad hoc slots.”
Aer Lingus shared: Aer Lingus is opposed to the approach taken by the IAA in respect of the planning conditions relating to the passenger cap in its summer 2025 capacity decision. More specifically, Aer Lingus does not agree with the IAA’s conclusion that these Planning Conditions are matters which the IAA is required to take account of in declaring capacity at Dublin Airport or that the IAA has any legal basis for removing historic slots,” it said. Aer Lingus has already challenged IAA’s previous decision relating to winter 2024 capacity at Dublin Airport by way of a judicial review and a hearing is due to take place in December. Aer Lingus is continuing to assess both the potential impact on its operations of the IAA’s decision reducing capacity for summer 2025 and its legal options regarding that reduction.
Ryanair’s CEO Michael O’Leary shared:“Today’s ruling by the IAA is unlawful. The Dublin Airport cap is in breach of the EU right to freedom of movement, and is also in breach of the EU/US Open Skies Agreement. We have no doubt that this absurd 17 year old restriction (which was solely deigned to allay road traffic “concerns” which no longer exist) will be thrown out by the European Courts.
However, if the Transport Minister had any back bone, he would issue a Direction letter to the IAA instructing them under Section 10 of the Aviation Act to approve additional Dublin Airport slot requests from all airlines. The fact that neither he, nor his colleague Tourism Minister Catherine Martin, are willing to act by simply signing a letter and sending it to the IAA, is yet another indictment of the performance of the Green Party in Government. The Greens have a Transport Minister and a Tourism Minister who have now presided over the opening of a 2nd runway, but now want Irish connectivity and tourism to suffer a 1m traffic cut in Summer 2025 because they are unwilling to take action.
Given Eamon Ryan’s failure to implement his own aviation policy, which is to deliver growth in traffic, connectivity, and jobs, he should now resign, as should Catherine Martin who has abjectly failed in her role as Tourism Minister.
Ryanair has instructed its lawyers to immediately seek an injunction in the Irish High Court and the European Courts to stop this absurd self harm inflicted on Irish aviation and Irish tourism by 2 incompetent Green Ministers, who we hope will soon be thrown out of office.”
DAA CEO Kenny Jacobs shared: “We’ve done everything we can to dampen demand and have asked the High Court to review the IAA’s winter slot decision to avoid Dublin Airport exceeding the 32m cap in 2024. Today’s announcement means we should be in a position to comply in 2025, which is to be welcomed. However, am seats coming out next year has real financial consequences for Ireland. We estimate the damage to the economy to be at least €500m, increasing to €700m if we consider lost airfares too. There are also real consequences for airlines, people working at the airport and the travelling public, as well as knock-on impacts on tourism and jobs. This issue is no longer just an airport or a planning issue, it is now an Ireland issue. Lifting the passenger cap to 40m passengers a year is in line with national aviation policy, the Fingal Development Plan and the Dublin Airport Local Area Plan. But while we wait for planning permission for this, we support the IAA’s decision to cut seats despite the consequences for Ireland. The IAA introduced a seat cap mechanism for the first time earlier this year when allocating slots for winter 2024/25 as part of efforts to comply with the 32-million terminal passenger cap. However, as the winter 2024/25 cuts did not go far enough to prevent terminal passenger numbers in 2024 exceeding the 32m planning condition, daa has asked the High Court to intervene and the case will be heard on 3rd December. daa will now review the IAA’s decision for summer 2025.
