Europe faces a serious risk of jet fuel shortages according to the head of the International Energy Agency warned that the continent has maybe six weeks or so of jet fuel left amid ongoing disruptions caused by the conflict involving Iran. Ryanair share price dropped by 7pc and IAG, parent of Aer Lingus, by 2pc.
Since the escalation of the conflict in early 2026, the world’s 20 largest listed airlines have collectively lost approximately $53bn in market value.
Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, issued the stark alert during an interview in Paris, highlighting that the final cargoes able to reach European ports before the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have now arrived, leaving stocks critically low if alternative supply routes cannot be secured quickly. He warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, airlines may soon have to cancel flights due to fuel shortages. Jet fuel prices have spiked to record levels, reaching $1,800 per ton in March, as supply from the Middle East is choked off.Major carriers are already taking drastic measures; Lufthansa announced it is shutting its regional subsidiary, CityLine, and permanently retiring 27 aircraft due to high fuel costs. Birol described the situation as the “largest energy crisis we have ever faced,” with rising fuel costs feeding broader inflation and slowing global growth.
He cautioned that without reopening the vital waterway, travellers could soon hear news of flights from city A to city B being cancelled due to a lack of aviation fuel, with potential impacts beginning as early as May or June and compounding economic pressures across the region.
The warning comes against the backdrop of the Iran war that has blocked key oil transport routes, severely restricting seaborne imports of jet fuel which normally account for a significant portion of European supply. Earlier in April the Airports Council International Europe had already sounded the alarm, stating that a systemic shortage could emerge within three weeks unless tankers resume passage through the Strait of Hormuz in a stable manner. Rerouting shipments around the Cape of Good Hope adds substantial delays of up to twenty days, creating gaps that current inventories struggle to cover. Independent stocks at major hubs such as Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp have fallen to their lowest levels since March 2023, while some countries hold as little as twenty days of commercial jet fuel reserves. The IEA has noted that if Europe can replace only half of the lost Middle Eastern volumes, stocks could drop to a critical 23 day level by June, at which point physical shortages and demand destruction would likely occur at certain airports.
European airlines and airport operators are closely monitoring the situation, with concerns mounting ahead of the busy summer travel season when demand traditionally peaks. Record inflows of jet fuel from the United States and other non Gulf sources have provided some relief in recent weeks, yet these have not fully offset the shortfall. Aviation fuel prices have already surged dramatically, rising by around one hundred and fifty per cent since mid February to reach levels that place additional strain on carriers already navigating airspace restrictions in the Middle East. No immediate flight cancellations have been widely announced, but industry leaders warn of severe cuts possible if the blockade persists, potentially affecting hundreds of routes and harming the broader economy through reduced connectivity and higher fares.
Authorities and energy experts continue to assess contingency measures, including drawing on emergency oil reserves held by EU member states, though these do not specifically mandate jet fuel stockpiles. The situation remains fluid, with hopes pinned on diplomatic efforts to restore safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz and on accelerated imports from alternative suppliers. Until clearer supply lines reopen, the six week buffer highlighted by the IEA represents a narrow window for action to avert widespread disruption to air travel across Europe.
