Air travel between Mexico, Canada, and the United States dropped nearly 10pc in January 2026, with about 1.3m passengers recorded. This decline is attributed to new US migration policies, economic tensions, and potential tariff increases, leading to lower flight occupancy and adjustments in growth projections for airlines and airports in the region.
While total transborder capacity between Canada and the U.S. fell, travel between Canada and Mexico saw substantial growth.
Air travel from Canada to the U.S. dropped 17.8pc year-over-year in January 2026. Canadian airlines reduced their total U.S.-bound capacity by 10pc for the first quarter of 2026 as travelers shifted away from American destinations.
Canadian travel to Mexico, in contrast to the U.S. decline, rose by approximately 11pc in January 2026. Airlines like WestJet and Air Canada aggressively shifted capacity toward Mexico, with WestJet increasing its Mexican seat availability by 40pc.
Total U.S. international air travel volumes fell from 22.3 million in December 2025 to 20.4 million in January 2026. However, U.S. domestic traffic remained 2.5pc higher than in January 2025, despite a seasonal month-over-month decline.
Geopolitical Tensions is a key factor in the shift. Analysts attribute the “Trump effect”—including trade tensions and 25pc tariffs introduced in 2025—as a primary driver for Canadians boycotting U.S. travel in favor of Mexico and the Caribbean.
Cost and Value play apart, 62pc of Canadians reported being less likely to visit the U.S. in 2026, citing high costs, exchange rates, and political concerns.
To mitigate the drop in U.S. demand, major carriers like Air Transat cancelled all 2026 summer flights to Florida, while others moved 5,000 aircraft seats per day from U.S. routes to destinations like Mexico, Cuba, and Costa Rica.
