The United States Federal Aviation Administration has revealed plans to engage Boeing in scenario-based planning exercises, commonly referred to as table-top exercises, as a prerequisite for any potential relaxation of the stringent 38-aircraft-per-month production cap on the 737 Max aircraft.
This development, announced by FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford on Tuesday, underscores the agency’s ongoing commitment to bolstering aviation safety following a series of high-profile incidents that have plagued the aerospace giant.
Bedford, speaking on the sidelines of an aviation event at Philadelphia International Airport, emphasised that these exercises are designed to simulate and anticipate challenges Boeing might encounter should production rates increase. “They still haven’t asked us to increase the rate, and we haven’t agreed to do anything,” Bedford cautioned.
Exercises could be copleted by the end of September, which would provide a structured roadmap for evaluating any future requests from Boeing to ramp up output. The initiative aims to ensure that the aircraft manufacturer sustains its recent advancements in quality control and supply chain stability, amid concerns over past lapses that have eroded public and regulatory confidence.
Turbulent recovery
Boeing, the world’s largest aerospace manufacturer, has been navigating a turbulent recovery from these setbacks, compounded by earlier fatal crashes in 2018 and 2019 that grounded the 737 Max fleet globally for nearly two years.
The company’s CEO, Kelly Ortberg, voiced confidence in May that Boeing could feasibly elevate production to 42 planes per month, a step that would represent a modest but significant expansion.
Ortberg reiterated this during Bedford’s recent visit to the Renton factory on 15 August, where the administrator received detailed briefings on safety enhancements, employee training programmes, and efforts to mitigate supply chain disruptions.
Bedford described the tour as encouraging, noting substantial process improvements, though he cautioned that challenges persist, particularly with “travelled work” – tasks delayed beyond initial schedules. “In general, good news, cautiously optimistic, but there’s still work to be done,” he remarked.
Pragmatic yet firm
The table-top exercises as a pragmatic yet firm regulatory stance, balancing Boeing’s commercial imperatives with passenger safety. With global demand for narrow-body jets surging post-pandemic – projected to exceed supply by thousands of units annually – lifting the cap could inject vital revenue into Boeing’s coffers, potentially valued at hundreds of millions of euros based on current order backlogs.
European carriers, including Ryanair and Lufthansa, have placed orders worth over €20 billion for 737 Max variants in recent years, underscoring the aircraft’s market dominance despite its chequered history. However, failure to demonstrate sustained compliance could prolong the restrictions, exacerbating delays for airlines and inflating costs estimated at €1.5 billion quarterly for Boeing in lost production.
Industry observers, including those from the International Air Transport Association, have welcomed the FAA’s methodical approach, arguing it could restore trust in Boeing’s safety culture. The exercises will involve collaborative simulations of production scenarios, drawing on lessons from the 2024 Alaska incident and broader audits that revealed gaps in Boeing’s Safety Management System.
ODA Programme
In a related move, the FAA extended Boeing’s Organisation Designation Authorisation programme by three years in May – shorter than the typical five – to enforce accountability while allowing limited delegation of inspection tasks.
As Boeing continues to implement its comprehensive corrective action plan, submitted earlier this year, the coming weeks will be pivotal. With the table-top exercises slated for completion by September’s end, stakeholders await whether this will pave the way for incremental increases, potentially to 42 planes monthly, or if further hurdles emerge. For now, the 38-plane cap remains firmly in place, a testament to the FAA’s prioritisation of safety over speed in an industry where a single oversight can cost lives and billions in euros.
Boeing declined to comment immediately on the latest developments, but sources close to the company indicate ongoing internal preparations to meet FAA benchmarks. Aviation experts predict that successful navigation of these exercises could signal a turning point, enabling Boeing to reclaim its position as a leader in commercial aviation amid fierce competition from Airbus.
The production cap was imposed in early 2024, shortly after a dramatic mid-air emergency on an Alaska Airlines 737 Max 9 flight, where a door plug component detached due to missing bolts, prompting an emergency landing and widespread alarm. This incident, which occurred just weeks after the aircraft’s delivery, exposed systemic issues in Boeing’s manufacturing processes and led to intensified FAA oversight, including on-site inspectors at Boeing’s facilities in Renton, Washington, and those of its key supplier, Spirit AeroSystems in Wichita, Kansas. Since then, the FAA has certified each new 737 Max individually, a measure extended into 2025 to maintain rigorous standards.
